2024 · Week 3

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

36·22

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -5.5

Total

40

Model margin

+3.0est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapRaiders
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.131
  • 41.8%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback-0.058
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.283
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +0.06CPOE-1.46
  • 36.3%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.51
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.6 points. LV are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W1LV @ CAR34–30RAIDERS
2016 · W12CAR @ OAK32–35RAIDERS
2012 · W16OAK @ CAR6–17CAR
2008 · W10CAR @ OAK17–6CAR
2004 · W9OAK @ CAR27–24RAIDERS
2000 · W17CAR @ OAK9–52RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–LV
CARQ1 15:00970Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 10:1336Punt7–0
CARQ1 8:51625Punt7–0
LVQ1 5:481192Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 0:241075Touchdown14–7
LVQ2 9:28521Turnover on downs14–7
CARQ2 6:533-1Punt14–7
LVQ2 5:0848Punt14–7
CARQ2 3:31519Punt14–7
LVQ2 1:5443Punt14–7
CARQ2 1:12468Touchdown21–7
LVQ2 0:28425Missed field goal21–7
LVQ3 15:0034Punt21–7
CARQ3 13:21641Field goal24–7
LVQ3 9:5949Turnover on downs24–7
CARQ3 8:14740Field goal27–7
LVQ3 4:4638Punt27–7
CARQ3 3:251269Touchdown33–7
LVQ4 13:33770Touchdown33–15
CARQ4 10:5635Punt33–15
LVQ4 9:11215Turnover33–15
CARQ4 8:34628Field goal36–15
LVQ4 4:471370Touchdown36–22
CARQ4 0:5600End of half36–22

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton26/3731930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard211145.40
Miles Sanders7172.41
Jonathan Mingo122.00
Andy Dalton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson8141221
Chuba Hubbard55551
Xavier Legette23420
Adam Thielen35401
Tommy Tremble33290
Jonathan Mingo34180
Miles Sanders22130
Ja'Tavion Sanders0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew18/2821411
Aidan O'Connell9/128210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zamir White10343.40
Gardner Minshew3144.70
Alexander Mattison372.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Tucker79961
Jakobi Meyers79621
Brock Bowers34410
Davante Adams49400
Alexander Mattison33370
Ameer Abdullah22130
Michael Mayer1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.04