Closing spread
LV -5.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.0est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.131
- 41.8%Success rate41.0%
- -0.041EPA / dropback-0.058
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.283
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.06CPOE-1.46
- 36.3%Third-down rate34.2%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.88Points / drive1.51
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. LV are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/37 | 319 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 21 | 114 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 14 | 122 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 18/28 | 214 | 1 | 1 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 9/12 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 7 | 9 | 96 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Brock Bowers | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04