Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Panthers
- OutLuke KuechlyLBConcussion· DNP
- OutMario AddisonDEFoot· DNP
- OutRyan KalilCShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableA.J. KleinLBConcussion· Full
- QuestionableColin JonesSConcussion· Full
- QuestionableGino GradkowskiCKnee· Full
- QuestionableLeonard JohnsonCBChest· Limited
- QuestionableTre BostonSAnkle· Limited
- DNPGreg OlsenTENot Injury Related
- DNPMichael OherTConcussion
- DNPZack SanchezCBGroin
Raiders
- OutShilique CalhounLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDavid AmersonCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableKeith McGillSAbdomen· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableLatavius MurrayRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMichael CrabtreeWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionablePerry RileyLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableRodney HudsonCKnee· Limited
- QuestionableStacy McGeeDTAnkle· Limited
Win probability
- Raiders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. OAK are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:30 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 10:01 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:19 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 4:48 | 5 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:10 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 12:48 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 10:30 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| CAR | Q2 6:49 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 6:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CAR | Q2 4:49 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 3:29 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CAR | Q2 1:46 | 2 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 7–24 |
| CAR | Q2 0:59 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 7–24 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| CAR | Q3 14:12 | 8 | 28 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| LV | Q3 10:33 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 13–24 |
| CAR | Q3 8:40 | 3 | 92 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| LV | Q3 7:43 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 19–24 |
| CAR | Q3 4:29 | 5 | 28 | Touchdown | 25–24 |
| LV | Q3 1:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 25–24 |
| CAR | Q3 1:23 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 32–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:26 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 32–32 |
| CAR | Q4 8:37 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 32–32 |
| LV | Q4 5:05 | 11 | 82 | Field goal | 32–35 |
| CAR | Q4 1:45 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 32–35 |
| LV | Q4 0:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 32–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/29 | 246 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 17 | 96 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 10 | 115 | 1 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+2.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.