Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. OAK are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/29 | 246 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 17 | 96 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 10 | 115 | 1 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+2.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.