Closing spread
OAK -9
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. OAK are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 12/21 | 156 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeff Lewis | 10/16 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Lewis | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 10 | 14 | 114 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Crawford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.42
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.