Closing spread
CAR -9.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutRichard SeymourDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJuron CrinerWRHip· Limited
- QuestionableTyvon BranchSNeck· Limited
- ProbableKhalif BarnesTTriceps· Limited
- ProbablePhillip AdamsCBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableRichard GordonTEBiceps· Limited
- ProbableMichael MitchellSNeck· Full
Panthers
- DoubtfulGeoff HangartnerCFoot· DNP
- QuestionableGarry WilliamsTIllness· DNP
- QuestionableJonathan StewartRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableCharles JohnsonDENot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableBrandon LaFellWRToe· Full
- ProbableByron BellTIllness· Full
- ProbableDwan EdwardsDTWrist· Full
- ProbableJordan GrossTNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableThomas AustinGIllness· Full
- ProbableThomas DavisLBNot Injury Related· Full
Win probability
- Panthers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:15 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 8:14 | 9 | 98 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:12 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 14:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:32 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 6:25 | 11 | 20 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:41 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 1:21 | 4 | 29 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 12:54 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CAR | Q3 10:42 | 10 | 16 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 6:14 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CAR | Q3 1:51 | 4 | 2 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 7 | 11 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| CAR | Q4 13:18 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LV | Q4 10:05 | 10 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 6–14 |
| CAR | Q4 5:19 | 6 | 48 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| LV | Q4 2:46 | 4 | -2 | Turnover on downs | 6–17 |
| CAR | Q4 1:54 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/29 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Joe Adams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.