Closing spread
CAR -9.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/29 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Joe Adams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.