Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
37
Model margin
+0.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.095
- 41.7%Success rate39.3%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.083
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.44CPOE-3.00
- 36.7%Third-down rate35.1%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.83Points / drive1.70
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. CHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 30/41 | 289 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 10 | 14 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 14 | 8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 20/37 | 173 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.32
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.09