2024 · Week 1

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

17·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -4

Total

43

Model margin

+1.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBears
  • -0.104EPA / play-0.072
  • 40.4%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.056EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.175EPA / rush-0.142
  • 8.3%Explosive rate5.9%
  • +0.11CPOE-0.22
  • 38.0%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.65
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. CHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W9CHI @ TEN17–24TEN
2016 · W12TEN @ CHI27–21TEN
2012 · W9CHI @ TEN51–20CHI
2008 · W10TEN @ CHI21–14TEN
2004 · W10CHI @ TEN19–17CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CHI
TENQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:5737Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:2934Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:469-2Punt0–0
TENQ1 5:26879Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 0:4100Field goal7–0
TENQ1 0:3631Field goal10–0
CHIQ2 14:06417Punt10–0
TENQ2 12:071683Touchdown17–0
CHIQ2 3:44828Field goal17–3
TENQ2 0:27111End of half17–3
CHIQ3 15:0067Punt17–3
TENQ3 12:2668Opp touchdown17–10
TENQ3 9:0743Punt17–10
CHIQ3 7:023-3Punt17–10
TENQ3 5:5939Punt17–10
CHIQ3 3:461039Field goal17–13
TENQ4 14:4753Turnover17–13
CHIQ4 11:44411Field goal17–16
TENQ4 9:52415Opp touchdown17–24
TENQ4 7:3535Punt17–24
CHIQ4 5:49646Punt17–24
TENQ4 2:20522Turnover17–24
CHIQ4 1:0500End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis19/3212712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard16825.11
Will Levis4369.00
Tyjae Spears4215.30
Treylon Burks210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley37500
Tyler Boyd35180
Chig Okonkwo22151
Tony Pollard34120
Nick Vannett22110
Tyjae Spears44110
DeAndre Hopkins1180
Treylon Burks1220

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams14/299300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift10303.00
Caleb Williams5153.00
DJ Moore11414.00
Velus Jones Jr.2115.50
Travis Homer2105.00
Khalil Herbert242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore58360
Keenan Allen411290
Rome Odunze14110
Velus Jones Jr.1180
DeAndre Carter1260
Cole Kmet1140
D'Andre Swift0100
Gerald Everett11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.87