Closing spread
CHI -4
Total
43
Model margin
+1.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play-0.072
- 40.4%Success rate40.1%
- -0.056EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.3%Explosive rate5.9%
- +0.11CPOE-0.22
- 38.0%Third-down rate33.1%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.35Points / drive1.65
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. CHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 19/32 | 127 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 14/29 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 11 | 29 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87