Closing spread
TEN -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.189
- 44.0%Success rate50.8%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.297
- -0.073EPA / rush+0.070
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.28CPOE+2.16
- 34.8%Third-down rate47.4%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 1.97Points / drive2.85
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. TEN are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 36/52 | 335 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 4 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Riley Ridley | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 10/21 | 158 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 9 | 101 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.54
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.65