2020 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Nick Foles

17·24

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

TEN -6.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapTitans
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.189
  • 44.0%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.297
  • -0.073EPA / rush+0.070
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.28CPOE+2.16
  • 34.8%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.85
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. TEN are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1TEN @ CHI17–24CHI
2016 · W12TEN @ CHI27–21TEN
2012 · W9CHI @ TEN51–20CHI
2008 · W10TEN @ CHI21–14TEN
2004 · W10CHI @ TEN19–17CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TEN
TENQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CHIQ1 14:03641Turnover on downs0–0
TENQ1 11:1031Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:0537Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:31756Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 4:2234Punt0–3
TENQ1 2:323-3Punt0–3
CHIQ1 1:1732Punt0–3
TENQ1 0:123-8Punt0–3
CHIQ2 14:14723Punt0–3
TENQ2 10:491291Touchdown0–10
CHIQ2 4:39415Punt0–10
TENQ2 1:543-7Punt0–10
CHIQ2 0:54413End of half0–10
CHIQ3 15:00543Punt0–10
TENQ3 12:05512Punt0–10
CHIQ3 9:541042Opp touchdown0–17
CHIQ3 4:411463Field goal3–17
TENQ4 12:30876Touchdown3–24
CHIQ4 8:10968Touchdown10–24
TENQ4 5:0632Punt10–24
CHIQ4 3:5314Turnover10–24
TENQ4 3:4637Punt10–24
CHIQ4 2:02950Touchdown17–24
TENQ4 1:0400End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles36/5233520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery14302.10
Cordarrelle Patterson3134.30
Nick Foles221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson79810
Anthony Miller58590
Jimmy Graham66551
Darnell Mooney511430
Ryan Nall44351
Cordarrelle Patterson44270
Riley Ridley22230
David Montgomery33120

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill10/2115820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry21683.20
D'Onta Foreman5112.20
Jeremy McNichols2105.00
Ryan Tannehill331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown491011
Jonnu Smith22321
Anthony Firkser36190
Cameron Batson1160
Corey Davis0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.5%

Expected total

48.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.54
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.65