2012 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

51·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

Total

44

Model margin

-0.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapTitans
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.093
  • 39.6%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.76CPOE-2.87
  • 36.4%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.29
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. TEN are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1TEN @ CHI17–24CHI
2020 · W9CHI @ TEN17–24TEN
2016 · W12TEN @ CHI27–21TEN
2008 · W10TEN @ CHI21–14TEN
2004 · W10CHI @ TEN19–17CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TEN
TENQ1 15:00123Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 14:44413Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:0939Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:06417Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:4846Opp touchdown7–0
TENQ1 6:4438Punt7–0
CHIQ1 5:0720Safety7–2
TENQ1 4:513-12Punt13–2
CHIQ1 3:4818Touchdown14–2
TENQ1 3:40218Opp touchdown21–2
TENQ1 2:5912Turnover21–2
CHIQ1 2:49316Touchdown28–2
TENQ1 1:3332Punt28–2
CHIQ1 0:41827Field goal31–2
TENQ2 11:441066Turnover31–2
CHIQ2 6:35962Turnover31–2
TENQ2 1:05729Field goal31–5
CHIQ3 15:0032Punt31–5
TENQ3 12:53459Touchdown31–12
CHIQ3 11:25658Field goal34–12
TENQ3 7:37525Punt34–12
CHIQ3 4:59866Field goal37–12
TENQ3 0:3838Punt37–12
CHIQ4 14:10565Touchdown44–12
TENQ4 11:211-1Turnover44–12
CHIQ4 11:0832Touchdown51–12
TENQ4 10:20180Touchdown51–20
CHIQ4 10:091032Turnover on downs51–20
TENQ4 3:50517Turnover on downs51–20
CHIQ4 1:4900End of half51–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler19/2622930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte121038.61
Armando Allen10323.20
Michael Bush10161.60
Jay Cutler11212.00
Jason Campbell3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall9101223
Matt Forte22450
Earl Bennett48220
Devin Hester22190
Michael Bush11170
Eric Weems0100
Evan Rodriguez0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck20/3520011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson161418.81
Matt Hasselbeck2189.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt58670
Nate Washington22351
Kendall Wright27300
Craig Stevens23260
Damian Williams23190
Chris Johnson46100
Taylor Thompson1170
Jared Cook2560

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.01