Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.093
- 39.6%Success rate38.0%
- +0.005EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.76CPOE-2.87
- 36.4%Third-down rate38.2%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.47Points / drive1.29
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. TEN are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/26 | 229 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 103 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Armando Allen | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 9 | 10 | 122 | 3 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Rodriguez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/35 | 200 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 141 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.01