2016 · Week 12

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

27·21

Bears

Chicago

QB Matt Barkley

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TEN -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBears
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.042
  • 45.5%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.049EPA / rush-0.111
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +1.12CPOE-0.10
  • 45.6%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.41
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. CHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1TEN @ CHI17–24CHI
2020 · W9CHI @ TEN17–24TEN
2012 · W9CHI @ TEN51–20CHI
2008 · W10TEN @ CHI21–14TEN
2004 · W10CHI @ TEN19–17CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0059Turnover on downs0–0
TENQ1 12:55413Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:141388Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 4:27775Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 0:0435Punt7–7
TENQ2 14:11864Touchdown14–7
CHIQ2 9:1135Turnover14–7
TENQ2 8:1567Punt14–7
CHIQ2 5:40517Punt14–7
TENQ2 2:15660Touchdown21–7
CHIQ2 1:1539Punt21–7
TENQ2 0:3726End of half21–7
TENQ3 15:0000Turnover21–7
CHIQ3 14:58952Turnover21–7
TENQ3 10:361079Field goal24–7
CHIQ3 4:0739Punt24–7
TENQ3 1:58860Field goal27–7
CHIQ4 13:451475Touchdown27–14
TENQ4 8:2333Punt27–14
CHIQ4 6:351484Touchdown27–21
TENQ4 3:0639Punt27–21
CHIQ4 1:56858Turnover on downs27–21
TENQ4 0:2900End of half27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota15/2322620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry8607.51
Marcus Mariota44611.50
DeMarco Murray17432.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews37641
Harry Douglas22600
Delanie Walker34501
DeMarco Murray55410
Tajae Sharpe23110
Anthony Fasano0100
Kendall Wright0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley28/5431632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard18844.70
Ka'Deem Carey166.00
Jeremy Langford155.00
Matt Barkley200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquess Wilson8111251
Deonte Thompson59441
Jordan Howard35430
Josh Bellamy49410
Daniel Brown34241
Cameron Meredith29190
Ben Braunecker12140
Ka'Deem Carey11120
Logan Paulsen0100
Jeremy Langford0200
Eddie Royal11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.24