Closing spread
TEN -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.042
- 45.5%Success rate44.1%
- +0.103EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.12CPOE-0.10
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.8%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.72Points / drive1.41
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. CHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 15/23 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 28/54 | 316 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquess Wilson | 8 | 11 | 125 | 1 |
| Deonte Thompson | 5 | 9 | 44 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Cameron Meredith | 2 | 9 | 19 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.24