2004 · Week 10

Final / OT

Bears

Chicago

QB Craig Krenzel

19·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Billy Volek

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -5.5

Total

34

Model margin

+6.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapTitans
  • -0.240EPA / play-0.012
  • 35.2%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.283EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.091
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 25.7%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 43.9%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.47
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.076

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. TEN are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1TEN @ CHI17–24CHI
2020 · W9CHI @ TEN17–24TEN
2016 · W12TEN @ CHI27–21TEN
2012 · W9CHI @ TEN51–20CHI
2008 · W10TEN @ CHI21–14TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TEN
TENQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:513-1Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:3749Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ1 9:4336Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:20428Punt0–0
CHIQ1 6:153-10Punt0–0
TENQ1 4:26658Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 2:173-13Punt0–7
TENQ1 1:26422Punt0–7
CHIQ2 14:11832Punt0–7
TENQ2 9:37517Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 8:0037Missed field goal0–7
TENQ2 5:5023Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 5:36619Turnover0–7
TENQ2 1:4438Punt0–7
CHIQ2 0:512-2Turnover0–7
TENQ2 0:4135Opp touchdown7–7
TENQ2 0:18112Missed field goal7–7
CHIQ3 15:0033Punt7–7
TENQ3 13:103-4Opp touchdown14–7
TENQ3 11:0445Punt14–7
CHIQ3 9:34537Punt14–7
TENQ3 7:32543Punt14–7
CHIQ3 5:063-5Punt14–7
TENQ3 2:42851Field goal14–10
CHIQ4 12:55511Punt14–10
TENQ4 10:3138Punt14–10
CHIQ4 8:58310Turnover14–10
TENQ4 7:15481Touchdown14–17
CHIQ4 6:003-9Punt14–17
TENQ4 4:0038Punt14–17
CHIQ4 2:51869Field goal17–17
TENQ4 0:52237Missed field goal17–17
CHIOT522Punt17–17
TENOT3-9Safety19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Craig Krenzel10/2811602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas29722.50
Bobby Wade3217.00
Craig Krenzel199.00
Bernard Berrian1-1-1.00

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Volek27/4433421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Brown20623.10
Billy Volek155.00
Antowain Smith242.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.01
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.86