Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
34
Model margin
+6.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play-0.012
- 35.2%Success rate41.5%
- -0.283EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.091
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- 25.7%Third-down rate34.6%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 0.78Points / drive1.47
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. TEN are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Krenzel | 10/28 | 116 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 29 | 72 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Craig Krenzel | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 27/44 | 334 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 20 | 62 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.01
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.86