Closing spread
NO -6
Total
51
Model margin
-0.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.120EPA / play-0.051
- 48.7%Success rate42.2%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.107
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.69CPOE-3.09
- 49.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 65.5%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 2.42Points / drive1.48
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. KC are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/36 | 266 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 16 | 88 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 19/38 | 235 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.39