Closing spread
KC -6
Total
51
Model margin
+2.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.012
- 48.2%Success rate42.7%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.38CPOE+2.15
- 49.0%Third-down rate38.7%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 2.39Points / drive1.88
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. KC are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 37/48 | 367 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 13 | 130 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 9 | 11 | 87 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/24 | 214 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 2 | 54 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.66