2016 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

21·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -6

Total

51

Model margin

+2.7est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.100EPA / play+0.012
  • 48.2%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.38CPOE+2.15
  • 49.0%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.88
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–2 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. KC are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NO @ KC13–26KC
2020 · W15KC @ NO32–29KC
2012 · W3KC @ NO27–24KC
2008 · W11NO @ KC30–20NO
2004 · W10KC @ NO20–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–KC
KCQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:471080Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 6:07575Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 4:07724Opp touchdown7–14
NOQ1 0:46619Punt7–14
KCQ2 12:00880Touchdown7–21
NOQ2 7:02526Punt7–21
KCQ2 4:47529Punt7–21
NOQ2 2:13549Punt7–21
KCQ2 0:4600End of half7–21
NOQ3 15:001670Touchdown14–21
KCQ3 6:57642Field goal14–24
NOQ3 3:21520Punt14–24
KCQ3 0:55734Punt14–24
NOQ4 12:11860Turnover14–24
KCQ4 8:26623Punt14–24
NOQ4 5:001085Touchdown21–24
KCQ4 2:3358Field goal21–27
NOQ4 0:28230End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees37/4836731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram16623.90
Tim Hightower5397.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas10131300
Willie Snead911870
Brandin Cooks79581
Coby Fleener22440
Mark Ingram44201
Brandon Coleman11101
Travaris Cadet2470
Josh Hill1160
Tim Hightower1150

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith17/2421420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Ware17774.50
Tyreek Hill22311.50
Alex Smith471.80
Charcandrick West451.30
Jamaal Charles100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Spencer Ware22541
Jeremy Maclin45400
Tyreek Hill11381
Chris Conley22290
Travis Kelce23240
De'Anthony Thomas22120
Demetrius Harris13100
Albert Wilson1140
Charcandrick West1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.66