Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
56.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.174EPA / play-0.028
- 50.4%Success rate40.2%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.052
- +0.091EPA / rush-0.169
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 47.6%Third-down rate33.4%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.37Points / drive1.72
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.130EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. NO are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 22/33 | 311 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Blaylock | 33 | 186 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 15/27 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 16 | 127 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85