Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play+0.096
- 50.2%Success rate47.7%
- +0.288EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.056EPA / rush+0.039
- 11.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.60CPOE+2.58
- 49.5%Third-down rate46.0%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.85Points / drive2.72
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. NO are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/47 | 254 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 12 | 68 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 10 | 53 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 9 | 22 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 15/34 | 234 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.00