Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutDamien WilsonLBKnee· DNP
- OutDarwin ThompsonRBIllness· DNP
- DoubtfulMike RemmersTBack· DNP
- QuestionableEric FisherTBack· Full
Saints
- OutMalcom BrownDTShoulder· DNP
- OutMichael ThomasWRAnkle· DNP
- OutNick EastonGConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableDeonte HartyWRNeck· Limited
- DNPTommylee LewisWRIllness
Win probability
- Saints
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play+0.096
- 50.2%Success rate47.7%
- +0.288EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.056EPA / rush+0.039
- 11.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.60CPOE+2.58
- 49.5%Third-down rate46.0%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.85Points / drive2.72
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. NO are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:45 | 5 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 10:19 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 9:33 | 8 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 4:59 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 14:58 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| KC | Q2 13:24 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 13:01 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| KC | Q2 10:21 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 5:35 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 14–7 |
| KC | Q2 3:05 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:16 | 4 | 29 | Safety | 14–9 |
| NO | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–9 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 51 | Touchdown | 14–15 |
| KC | Q3 13:16 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–15 |
| NO | Q3 8:23 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–15 |
| KC | Q3 7:23 | 10 | 25 | Punt | 21–15 |
| NO | Q3 4:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–15 |
| KC | Q3 3:28 | 10 | 46 | Touchdown | 29–15 |
| NO | Q4 13:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 29–15 |
| KC | Q4 13:02 | 5 | 3 | Turnover | 29–15 |
| NO | Q4 10:56 | 3 | 25 | Touchdown | 29–22 |
| KC | Q4 9:43 | 9 | 71 | Field goal | 32–22 |
| NO | Q4 4:18 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 32–29 |
| KC | Q4 2:06 | 4 | 22 | End of half | 32–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/47 | 254 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 12 | 68 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 10 | 53 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 9 | 22 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 15/34 | 234 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.00