2024 · Week 5

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

13·26

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

KC -5.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.071
  • 40.6%Success rate47.7%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.058
  • 8.5%Explosive rate5.8%
  • -3.67CPOE+2.51
  • 36.3%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.36
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–2 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. KC are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W15KC @ NO32–29KC
2016 · W7NO @ KC21–27KC
2012 · W3KC @ NO27–24KC
2008 · W11NO @ KC30–20NO
2004 · W10KC @ NO20–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–KC
NOQ1 15:00631Turnover0–0
KCQ1 11:591078Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 6:3435Punt0–7
KCQ1 4:4933Punt0–7
NOQ1 3:2832Punt0–7
KCQ1 2:261062Field goal0–10
NOQ2 12:39774Touchdown7–10
KCQ2 8:361579Field goal7–13
NOQ2 1:3230Punt7–13
KCQ2 0:58855Field goal7–16
NOQ2 0:0600End of half7–16
KCQ3 15:00938Missed field goal7–16
NOQ3 10:1476Punt7–16
KCQ3 6:481036Turnover7–16
NOQ3 1:43960Touchdown13–16
KCQ4 14:16564Touchdown13–23
NOQ4 11:56614Turnover on downs13–23
KCQ4 9:321148Field goal13–26
NOQ4 3:03928Turnover on downs13–26
KCQ4 1:4700End of half13–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr18/2816521
Jake Haener2/71700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara11262.40
Jake Haener2115.50
Jamaal Williams294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed49861
Alvin Kamara68400
Juwan Johnson55310
Foster Moreau22131
Chris Olave24100
Mason Tipton1420

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes28/3933101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt271023.81
Patrick Mahomes6223.70
Carson Steele5122.40
Xavier Worthy133.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster781300
Travis Kelce910700
Mecole Hardman44330
Noah Gray22290
Xavier Worthy36250
Samaje Perine12240
Kareem Hunt11150
Joseph Fortson1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.19