Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.071
- 40.6%Success rate47.7%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.058
- 8.5%Explosive rate5.8%
- -3.67CPOE+2.51
- 36.3%Third-down rate48.6%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.72Points / drive2.36
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. KC are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 18/28 | 165 | 2 | 1 |
| Jake Haener | 2/7 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jake Haener | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 9 | 86 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28/39 | 331 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 27 | 102 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 8 | 130 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.19