Closing spread
NO -9
Total
51.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play+0.094
- 40.7%Success rate47.2%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.160
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.039
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.02CPOE+0.89
- 33.1%Third-down rate43.1%
- 38.7%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 0.91Points / drive2.17
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. NO are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 26/44 | 248 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 33 | 233 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Shaun Draughn | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 7 | 16 | 79 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 6 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Steve Maneri | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/36 | 240 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 4 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 8 | 16 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.54