Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.018
- 43.8%Success rate40.6%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.027
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.08CPOE-0.33
- 41.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 50.9%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.73Points / drive1.61
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. BAL are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 10/23 | 73 | 0 | 2 |
| Donovan McNabb | 8/18 | 59 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 12/26 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 7 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 2 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
39.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10