2008 · Week 12

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

7·36

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 39°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapRavens
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.018
  • 43.8%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.027
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.08CPOE-0.33
  • 41.3%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 50.9%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.61
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. BAL are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13PHI @ BAL24–19PHI
2020 · W6BAL @ PHI30–28BAL
2016 · W15PHI @ BAL26–27BAL
2012 · W2BAL @ PHI23–24PHI
2004 · W8BAL @ PHI10–15PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–BAL
BALQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
PHIQ1 14:01513Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:22531Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:1134Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:43617Punt0–0
PHIQ1 3:00950Turnover0–0
BALQ2 14:06513Punt0–0
PHIQ2 12:2839Turnover0–0
BALQ2 10:563-27Punt0–0
PHIQ2 9:163-4Punt0–0
BALQ2 8:13518Punt0–0
PHIQ2 5:2732Punt0–0
BALQ2 4:3032Field goal0–3
PHIQ2 3:0010Turnover0–3
BALQ2 2:3836Touchdown6–10
PHIQ2 1:4900Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 1:37741Missed field goal7–10
PHIQ2 0:1748End of half7–10
PHIQ3 15:00627Punt7–10
BALQ3 12:02833Punt7–10
PHIQ3 7:4546Safety7–12
BALQ3 6:016-7Punt7–12
PHIQ3 2:2820Turnover7–12
BALQ3 2:17527Field goal7–15
PHIQ4 14:523-4Punt7–15
BALQ4 13:06360Touchdown7–22
PHIQ4 11:30969Opp touchdown7–29
PHIQ4 7:2448Turnover on downs7–29
BALQ4 6:11536Touchdown7–36
PHIQ4 3:10818Turnover on downs7–36
BALQ4 1:5300End of half7–36

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb10/237302
Donovan McNabb8/185902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook14392.80
Correll Buckhalter2168.00
Kevin Kolb3124.00
DeSean Jackson11212.00
Donovan McNabb177.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco12/2618320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee781.10
Ray Rice870.90
Joe Flacco530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap21260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

39.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.10