2020 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

30·28

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -10.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapEagles
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.055
  • 45.2%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback-0.043
  • +0.093EPA / rush-0.081
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.32CPOE-4.93
  • 49.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 2.64Points / drive1.61
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13PHI @ BAL24–19PHI
2016 · W15PHI @ BAL26–27BAL
2012 · W2BAL @ PHI23–24PHI
2008 · W12PHI @ BAL7–36BAL
2004 · W8BAL @ PHI10–15PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:003-13Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:15947Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 8:02311Punt7–0
BALQ1 5:443-2Punt7–0
PHIQ1 4:4834Punt7–0
BALQ1 4:0332Punt7–0
PHIQ1 3:0513Turnover7–0
BALQ1 2:54212Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 1:4017Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 1:1429Touchdown14–0
BALQ1 0:3100Touchdown14–0
PHIQ1 0:313-2Punt14–0
BALQ2 14:08435Field goal17–0
PHIQ2 12:083-10Punt17–0
BALQ2 10:281040Punt17–0
PHIQ2 5:321075Turnover on downs17–0
BALQ2 0:5739Punt17–0
PHIQ2 0:16326Missed field goal17–0
BALQ3 15:001050Punt17–0
PHIQ3 8:10279Touchdown17–6
BALQ3 7:17563Touchdown24–6
PHIQ3 4:2531Punt24–6
BALQ3 3:073-2Punt24–6
PHIQ3 1:361378Touchdown24–14
BALQ4 13:32638Field goal27–14
PHIQ4 10:0145Turnover on downs27–14
BALQ4 9:19412Field goal30–14
PHIQ4 7:121285Touchdown30–22
BALQ4 3:48411Punt30–22
PHIQ4 3:11522Touchdown30–28
BALQ4 1:55226End of half30–28

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/2718610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson910812.01
J.K. Dobbins9283.10
Gus Edwards14261.91
Mark Ingram5204.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown46570
Nick Boyle33331
Willie Snead12320
Devin Duvernay33310
Mark Andrews24210
Miles Boykin12110
J.K. Dobbins2410
Patrick Ricard0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz21/4021320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders911813.10
Carson Wentz5499.81
Jalen Hurts22311.50
Boston Scott242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Fulgham610751
John Hightower14500
Zach Ertz410330
Richard Rodgers33310
Greg Ward23190
Boston Scott2450
Jason Croom1131
Jalen Hurts1130
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside0100
Miles Sanders12-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.3%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.93