Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.055
- 45.2%Success rate41.8%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.043
- +0.093EPA / rush-0.081
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.32CPOE-4.93
- 49.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 2.64Points / drive1.61
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/27 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 108 | 12.0 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 21/40 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 9 | 118 | 13.1 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Fulgham | 6 | 10 | 75 | 1 |
| John Hightower | 1 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.3%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.93