Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.072
- 38.4%Success rate44.4%
- -0.127EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.060
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- 35.0%Third-down rate37.2%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.22Points / drive1.97
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.136EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 24/38 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| B.J. Sams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/33 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Bartrum | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.18