Closing spread
BAL -5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.060
- 43.8%Success rate40.7%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.1%
- -0.81CPOE-0.41
- 38.3%Third-down rate38.2%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.86Points / drive1.63
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. BAL are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 22/42 | 170 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 20 | 128 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Byron Marshall | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 11 | 27 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/30 | 206 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.42