2016 · Week 15

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

26·27

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapRavens
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.060
  • 43.8%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.100
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -0.81CPOE-0.41
  • 38.3%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.63
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. BAL are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13PHI @ BAL24–19PHI
2020 · W6BAL @ PHI30–28BAL
2012 · W2BAL @ PHI23–24PHI
2008 · W12PHI @ BAL7–36BAL
2004 · W8BAL @ PHI10–15PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–BAL
PHIQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
BALQ1 13:32536Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 11:3868Punt0–7
BALQ1 9:033-7Punt0–7
PHIQ1 7:29516Field goal3–7
BALQ1 4:42653Field goal3–10
PHIQ1 1:553-2Punt3–10
BALQ1 0:143-2Turnover3–10
PHIQ2 14:4414Touchdown11–10
BALQ2 14:38947Field goal11–13
PHIQ2 9:211769Field goal14–13
BALQ2 1:39860Touchdown14–20
PHIQ2 0:0900End of half14–20
BALQ3 15:00436Punt14–20
PHIQ3 12:24921Turnover on downs14–20
BALQ3 8:013-2Punt14–20
PHIQ3 6:471279Field goal17–20
BALQ4 14:48864Touchdown17–27
PHIQ4 11:06742Turnover on downs17–27
BALQ4 7:43456Turnover17–27
PHIQ4 6:121049Field goal20–27
BALQ4 2:2230Punt20–27
PHIQ4 1:391141Touchdown26–27
BALQ4 0:0400End of half26–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz22/4217001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews201286.41
Byron Marshall9222.40
Carson Wentz482.01
Kenjon Barner362.00
Bryce Treggs144.00
Nelson Agholor111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz68800
Jordan Matthews611270
Kenjon Barner25250
Dorial Green-Beckham13110
Nelson Agholor1490
Byron Marshall2360
Brent Celek1150
Ryan Mathews1150
Trey Burton2620

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/3020621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West13775.90
Michael Campanaro13939.00
Kenneth Dixon9364.01
Joe Flacco1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace25600
Terrance West44450
Steve Smith27401
Kamar Aiken22191
Dennis Pitta22160
Darren Waller12110
Michael Campanaro0100
Breshad Perriman0100
Kenneth Dixon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.42