2024 · Week 13

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

24·19

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

50

Model margin

+2.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapRavens
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.199
  • 45.2%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.328
  • +0.056EPA / rush+0.053
  • 10.7%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +6.20CPOE+4.67
  • 42.4%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
  • 2.46Points / drive2.80
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. BAL are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W6BAL @ PHI30–28BAL
2016 · W15PHI @ BAL26–27BAL
2012 · W2BAL @ PHI23–24PHI
2008 · W12PHI @ BAL7–36BAL
2004 · W8BAL @ PHI10–15PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–BAL
PHIQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:10746Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 9:2134Punt0–3
BALQ1 8:27882Touchdown0–9
PHIQ1 3:4932Punt0–9
BALQ1 1:2835Punt0–9
PHIQ2 14:49421Punt0–9
BALQ2 12:1635Punt0–9
PHIQ2 10:55649Touchdown7–9
BALQ2 8:0434Punt7–9
PHIQ2 6:021073Touchdown14–9
BALQ2 2:00727Field goal14–12
PHIQ2 0:0300End of half14–12
BALQ3 15:00941Missed field goal14–12
PHIQ3 9:553-1Punt14–12
BALQ3 8:161346Missed field goal14–12
PHIQ3 1:2134Punt14–12
BALQ4 15:00734Punt14–12
PHIQ4 11:20866Touchdown21–12
BALQ4 7:56512Turnover on downs21–12
PHIQ4 6:111020Field goal24–12
BALQ4 1:03770Touchdown24–19
PHIQ4 0:0300End of half24–19

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts11/1911810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley231074.71
Jalen Hurts9293.21
Will Shipley144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown56660
Dallas Goedert34351
Saquon Barkley24100
Jahan Dotson1170
Parris Campbell0100
Britain Covey0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson23/3623720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry19824.30
Lamar Jackson8799.90
Justice Hill362.00
Mark Andrews122.00
Zay Flowers1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers37740
Mark Andrews67671
Isaiah Likely58381
Derrick Henry33290
Justice Hill46150
Tylan Wallace22140
Nelson Agholor0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.31