Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
50
Model margin
+2.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.199
- 45.2%Success rate49.4%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.328
- +0.056EPA / rush+0.053
- 10.7%Explosive rate12.0%
- +6.20CPOE+4.67
- 42.4%Third-down rate47.9%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 2.46Points / drive2.80
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. BAL are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 11/19 | 118 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 23 | 107 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Britain Covey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 23/36 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 79 | 9.9 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 5 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.31