2012 · Week 2

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

23·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapEagles
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.073
  • 41.5%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback-0.006
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.208
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -0.27CPOE+0.51
  • 37.1%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.18
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13PHI @ BAL24–19PHI
2020 · W6BAL @ PHI30–28BAL
2016 · W15PHI @ BAL26–27BAL
2008 · W12PHI @ BAL7–36BAL
2004 · W8BAL @ PHI10–15PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00968Turnover0–0
BALQ1 10:142-5Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 9:34823Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 5:40758Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 2:08417Punt7–7
BALQ2 14:50621Turnover on downs7–7
PHIQ2 12:35630Turnover7–7
BALQ2 10:01470Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 8:3239Punt14–7
BALQ2 7:0333Punt14–7
PHIQ2 4:48571Turnover14–7
BALQ2 2:31532Punt14–7
PHIQ2 1:0534Punt14–7
BALQ2 0:0910Field goal17–7
PHIQ2 0:0100End of half17–7
BALQ3 15:00524Turnover17–7
PHIQ3 13:28642Touchdown17–14
BALQ3 10:4030Punt17–14
PHIQ3 10:121060Field goal17–17
BALQ3 5:3038Punt17–17
PHIQ3 4:1131Punt17–17
BALQ3 2:3239Punt17–17
PHIQ3 1:36455Turnover17–17
BALQ3 0:191026Field goal20–17
PHIQ4 11:28631Punt20–17
BALQ4 9:261058Field goal23–17
PHIQ4 4:431077Touchdown23–24
BALQ4 1:55821Turnover on downs23–24
PHIQ4 0:5000End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/4223211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice16996.20
Bernard Pierce341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Pitta815650
Ray Rice610530
Torrey Smith25510
Ed Dickson14230
Jacoby Jones12211
Anquan Boldin2470
Tandon Doss1160

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick23/3237112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy25813.21
Mike Vick10343.41
Bryce Brown372.30
Damaris Johnson166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek8111570
DeSean Jackson791140
Jason Avant22330
Jeremy Maclin11231
Clay Harbor12190
Damaris Johnson11130
LeSean McCoy2380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.41