Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.073
- 41.5%Success rate42.7%
- +0.070EPA / dropback-0.006
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.208
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.27CPOE+0.51
- 37.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.80Points / drive1.18
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/42 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 16 | 99 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Pitta | 8 | 15 | 65 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 23/32 | 371 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 25 | 81 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 8 | 11 | 157 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.41