2008 · Week 14

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

13·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 22°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

38

Model margin

+5.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSteelers
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.031
  • 41.9%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.021EPA / dropback+0.022
  • -0.015EPA / rush-0.103
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +3.06CPOE+0.13
  • 43.2%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.61
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.5 points. PIT are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5DAL @ PIT20–17DAL
2020 · W9PIT @ DAL24–19PIT
2016 · W10DAL @ PIT35–30DAL
2012 · W15PIT @ DAL24–27DAL
2004 · W6PIT @ DAL24–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PIT
DALQ1 15:0033Turnover0–0
PITQ1 13:57624Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 11:531032Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ1 6:37626Punt0–0
DALQ1 3:1735Punt0–0
PITQ1 1:3128Turnover0–0
DALQ1 1:17520Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ2 14:0432Punt0–0
DALQ2 13:03411Turnover0–0
PITQ2 11:22311Turnover0–0
DALQ2 10:0539Punt0–0
PITQ2 8:2134Punt0–0
PITQ2 6:2437Punt0–0
DALQ2 5:3010Turnover0–0
PITQ2 5:2567Field goal0–3
DALQ2 2:40754Field goal3–3
PITQ3 15:003-4Punt3–3
DALQ3 13:54867Touchdown10–3
PITQ3 9:36516Punt10–3
DALQ3 6:20657Field goal13–3
PITQ3 3:321366Turnover on downs13–3
DALQ4 12:20515Punt13–3
PITQ4 8:4232Field goal13–6
DALQ4 7:1534Punt13–6
PITQ4 5:10867Touchdown13–13
DALQ4 2:0422Opp touchdown13–20
DALQ4 1:40510Turnover on downs13–20
PITQ4 0:5124End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo19/3621013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tashard Choice23883.80
Tony Romo166.00
Terrell Owens111.00

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/3320410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker12252.10
Mewelde Moore5224.40
Ben Roethlisberger5173.40
Gary Russell461.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

40.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.22