Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
38
Model margin
+5.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.031
- 41.9%Success rate42.9%
- -0.021EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.103
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.06CPOE+0.13
- 43.2%Third-down rate41.3%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.67Points / drive1.61
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.5 points. PIT are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/36 | 210 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashard Choice | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/33 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.22