Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play+0.085
- 48.6%Success rate46.0%
- +0.226EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- +4.07CPOE+1.74
- 43.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 2.52Points / drive2.24
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.5 points. PIT are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/32 | 319 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21 | 114 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Alfred Morris | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 9 | 116 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 95 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 37/46 | 408 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 14 | 18 | 154 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 9 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Ladarius Green | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.66