2016 · Week 10

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

35·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSteelers
  • +0.126EPA / play+0.085
  • 48.6%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.226EPA / dropback+0.164
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +4.07CPOE+1.74
  • 43.8%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.24
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.5 points. PIT are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5DAL @ PIT20–17DAL
2020 · W9PIT @ DAL24–19PIT
2012 · W15PIT @ DAL24–27DAL
2008 · W14DAL @ PIT13–20PIT
2004 · W6PIT @ DAL24–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PIT
DALQ1 15:00313Turnover0–0
PITQ1 13:45838Touchdown0–6
DALQ1 9:54947Field goal3–6
PITQ1 5:17970Touchdown3–12
DALQ1 1:13390Touchdown10–12
PITQ1 0:1237Punt10–12
DALQ2 14:28730Field goal13–12
PITQ2 11:041039Field goal13–15
DALQ2 4:4338Punt13–15
PITQ2 3:10839Punt13–15
DALQ2 0:4530Punt13–15
PITQ2 0:20322Missed field goal13–15
PITQ3 15:00740Field goal13–18
DALQ3 13:101346Field goal16–18
PITQ3 5:353-1Punt16–18
DALQ3 3:23459Touchdown23–18
PITQ3 1:35618Punt23–18
DALQ4 13:1339Punt23–18
PITQ4 10:56646Touchdown23–24
DALQ4 7:511060Touchdown29–24
PITQ4 1:55575Touchdown29–30
DALQ4 0:42560Touchdown35–30
PITQ4 0:09255End of half35–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3231920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott211145.42
Alfred Morris4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant691161
Ezekiel Elliott22951
Jason Witten68590
Cole Beasley59330
Alfred Morris1160
Terrance Williams1150
Lucky Whitehead1150
Lance Dunbar0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger37/4640830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell17573.41
Ben Roethlisberger111.00
Antonio Brown1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown14181541
Le'Veon Bell910771
Jesse James44590
Eli Rogers45421
Cobi Hamilton11390
Ladarius Green34300
Xavier Grimble1250
David Johnson1120
Sammie Coates0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.66