Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
39
Model margin
-0.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.050
- 44.9%Success rate42.6%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.108
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- 44.9%Third-down rate36.3%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.83Points / drive1.44
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.133EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.5 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/25 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 23/36 | 284 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| ReShard Lee | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.43