Closing spread
PIT -14
Total
44
Model margin
+1.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.029
- 44.0%Success rate46.1%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.90CPOE-1.42
- 42.1%Third-down rate41.5%
- 70.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.12Points / drive1.87
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.5 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/42 | 306 | 3 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2/3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 8 | 13 | 69 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| James Washington | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Gilbert | 21/38 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Garrett Gilbert | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.73
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.66