2020 · Week 9

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

24·19

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Garrett Gilbert

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -14

Total

44

Model margin

+1.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.029
  • 44.0%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.90CPOE-1.42
  • 42.1%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 70.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.87
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.5 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5DAL @ PIT20–17DAL
2016 · W10DAL @ PIT35–30DAL
2012 · W15PIT @ DAL24–27DAL
2008 · W14DAL @ PIT13–20PIT
2004 · W6PIT @ DAL24–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DAL
PITQ1 15:00925Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:421165Field goal0–3
PITQ1 3:5530Punt0–3
DALQ1 1:4439Punt0–3
PITQ2 14:51735Turnover on downs0–3
DALQ2 11:26865Touchdown0–10
PITQ2 7:4537Punt0–10
DALQ2 6:0135Field goal0–13
PITQ2 3:46975Touchdown6–13
DALQ2 1:10214Turnover6–13
PITQ2 0:5243Field goal9–13
DALQ3 15:001050Field goal9–16
PITQ3 10:1736Punt9–16
DALQ3 8:391153Field goal9–19
PITQ3 2:13880Touchdown15–19
DALQ4 14:51631Turnover15–19
PITQ4 11:451155Field goal18–19
DALQ4 7:11615Punt18–19
PITQ4 4:11764Touchdown24–19
DALQ4 2:145-1Turnover on downs24–19
PITQ4 1:3745Turnover on downs24–19
DALQ4 0:38658End of half24–19

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger29/4230630
Mason Rudolph2/3300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner9222.40
Ben Roethlisberger188.00
Anthony McFarland372.30
Diontae Johnson144.00
Chase Claypool144.00
Benny Snell310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster67931
Diontae Johnson610770
Chase Claypool813690
Eric Ebron36221
James Washington12171
Ray-Ray McCloud22160
Anthony McFarland22150
Vance McDonald1120
James Conner22-20

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Garrett Gilbert21/3824311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard9576.30
Ezekiel Elliott18512.80
Garrett Gilbert3289.30
Amari Cooper188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb47711
Amari Cooper56670
Dalton Schultz47480
Michael Gallup37360
Ezekiel Elliott23180
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1360
Tony Pollard1210
Blake Bell12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -144.1%2.8%7.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.73
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.66