Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.043
- 42.0%Success rate47.2%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.59CPOE+3.18
- 41.9%Third-down rate43.3%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.66Points / drive1.79
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.5 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/40 | 339 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Chris Rainey | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 10 | 95 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 7 | 7 | 92 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 12 | 76 | 1 |
| Will Johnson | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 30/42 | 341 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 9 | 59 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66