2012 · Week 15

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

24·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.043
  • 42.0%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.59CPOE+3.18
  • 41.9%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.79
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.5 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5DAL @ PIT20–17DAL
2020 · W9PIT @ DAL24–19PIT
2016 · W10DAL @ PIT35–30DAL
2008 · W14DAL @ PIT13–20PIT
2004 · W6PIT @ DAL24–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DAL
PITQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:07956Field goal0–3
PITQ1 8:36736Punt0–3
DALQ1 4:47872Turnover0–3
PITQ1 0:4339Punt0–3
DALQ2 13:42568Touchdown0–10
PITQ2 11:021166Field goal3–10
DALQ2 6:03830Punt3–10
PITQ2 2:11773Touchdown10–10
DALQ2 0:3400End of half10–10
DALQ3 15:0039Punt10–10
PITQ3 13:0235Punt10–10
DALQ3 11:35980Touchdown10–17
PITQ3 6:03359Touchdown17–17
DALQ3 4:16525Punt17–17
PITQ3 0:53778Touchdown24–17
DALQ4 12:37519Punt24–17
DALQ4 10:03744Touchdown24–24
PITQ4 6:55637Punt24–24
DALQ4 2:5439Punt24–24
PITQ4 1:4756Punt24–24
DALQ4 0:4736Punt24–24
PITQ4 0:2500End of half24–24
PITOT27Turnover24–24
DALOT00Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/4033921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Redman33010.00
Jonathan Dwyer9222.41
Chris Rainey3155.00
Ben Roethlisberger221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace410950
Heath Miller77921
Antonio Brown812761
Will Johnson22340
Jerricho Cotchery22280
Isaac Redman11140
Emmanuel Sanders0100
Jonathan Dwyer0100
Chris Rainey0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo30/4234120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray14815.81
Felix Jones3103.30
Tony Romo4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin710790
Dez Bryant49591
Dwayne Harris44460
James Hanna22450
Jason Witten58431
DeMarco Murray44310
Cole Beasley22140
Kevin Ogletree1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.66