2024 · Week 5

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

20·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Justin Fields

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSteelers
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.027
  • 41.4%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.067EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.124
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -4.87CPOE+3.65
  • 37.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.86
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.5 points. PIT are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W9PIT @ DAL24–19PIT
2016 · W10DAL @ PIT35–30DAL
2012 · W15PIT @ DAL24–27DAL
2008 · W14DAL @ PIT13–20PIT
2004 · W6PIT @ DAL24–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PIT
DALQ1 15:00521Field goal3–0
PITQ1 12:351047Field goal3–3
DALQ1 7:33314Punt3–3
PITQ1 6:325-3Punt3–3
DALQ1 4:41956Turnover3–3
PITQ2 15:00310Punt3–3
DALQ2 12:20741Field goal6–3
PITQ2 8:51926Punt6–3
DALQ2 3:05770Turnover6–3
PITQ2 0:5239End of half6–3
PITQ3 15:00757Touchdown6–10
DALQ3 11:50750Missed field goal6–10
PITQ3 8:44426Punt6–10
DALQ3 7:231795Touchdown13–10
PITQ4 13:5135Punt13–10
DALQ4 12:54628Turnover13–10
PITQ4 10:281256Touchdown13–17
DALQ4 4:561570Touchdown20–17
PITQ4 0:202-7Turnover20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott29/4235222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle20874.30
Ezekiel Elliott6172.80
Hunter Luepke263.00
Dak Prescott133.00
CeeDee Lamb122.00
KaVontae Turpin1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Tolbert710871
Jake Ferguson67700
CeeDee Lamb59620
KaVontae Turpin45500
Rico Dowdle22271
Brevyn Spann-Ford23200
Hunter Luepke11180
Jalen Brooks11100
Luke Schoonmaker1280
Ezekiel Elliott0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields15/2713120
Kyle Allen1/11900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris14423.00
Justin Fields6274.50
Aaron Shampklin4143.50
Jonathan Ward294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Najee Harris22350
Van Jefferson35260
George Pickens37260
Pat Freiermuth33221
Brandon Johnson1190
Calvin Austin III1260
Darnell Washington1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.75
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.19