Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.027
- 41.4%Success rate40.7%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.124
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.8%
- -4.87CPOE+3.65
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.68Points / drive1.86
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.5 points. PIT are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 29/42 | 352 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 20 | 87 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Tolbert | 7 | 10 | 87 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15/27 | 131 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 1/1 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Shampklin | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Brandon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.75
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.19