Closing spread
GB -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.051
- 45.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.072
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.93CPOE+4.24
- 42.2%Third-down rate44.1%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.94
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–1 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:30 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 11:03 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:58 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:50 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 3:54 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 1:44 | 8 | 79 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| GB | Q2 13:12 | 8 | 49 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 8:35 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| GB | Q2 5:53 | 2 | 23 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 5:07 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 1:50 | 5 | 36 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| HOU | Q2 0:33 | 5 | 37 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–7 |
| HOU | Q3 14:31 | 4 | 30 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| GB | Q3 11:53 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 13–7 |
| HOU | Q3 9:36 | 14 | 77 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| GB | Q3 1:45 | 4 | 79 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| HOU | Q4 14:56 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| GB | Q4 10:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–14 |
| GB | Q4 9:04 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| HOU | Q4 5:56 | 3 | 19 | Punt | 21–21 |
| GB | Q4 4:37 | 5 | 56 | Punt | 21–21 |
| HOU | Q4 1:49 | 7 | 76 | Field goal | 24–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 28/42 | 414 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 26 | 120 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/30 | 295 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.32