Closing spread
GB -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.051
- 45.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.072
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.93CPOE+4.24
- 42.2%Third-down rate44.1%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.94
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–1 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 28/42 | 414 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 26 | 120 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/30 | 295 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.32