2024 · Week 7

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

22·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

48

Model margin

+3.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPackers
  • -0.038EPA / play+0.081
  • 39.1%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.030
  • 8.3%Explosive rate11.7%
  • -2.77CPOE+1.37
  • 38.2%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.38
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–1 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W7GB @ HOU35–20GB
2016 · W13HOU @ GB13–21GB
2012 · W6GB @ HOU42–24GB
2008 · W14HOU @ GB24–21HOU
2004 · W11GB @ HOU16–13GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–GB
GBQ1 15:00430Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 12:4841Field goal3–0
GBQ1 11:4838Punt3–0
HOUQ1 9:39736Punt3–0
GBQ1 5:061377Touchdown3–7
HOUQ2 13:1631Punt3–7
HOUQ2 12:29211Touchdown10–7
GBQ2 11:52740Touchdown10–14
HOUQ2 8:51823Field goal13–14
GBQ2 4:3010Turnover13–14
HOUQ2 4:18650Touchdown19–14
GBQ2 1:1331Punt19–14
HOUQ2 0:0700End of half19–14
HOUQ3 15:003-3Punt19–14
GBQ3 12:47971Touchdown19–21
HOUQ3 7:2540Punt19–21
GBQ3 6:4439Punt19–21
HOUQ3 4:35622Punt19–21
GBQ3 1:063-2Punt19–21
HOUQ4 14:07616Punt19–21
GBQ4 10:1044Punt19–21
HOUQ4 8:111341Field goal22–21
GBQ4 1:44839Field goal22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud10/218600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon251154.62
C.J. Stroud5193.80
Dare Ogunbowale166.00
Dameon Pierce221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz12280
Stefon Diggs57230
Cade Stover11150
Xavier Hutchinson11110
Joe Mixon2390
Dare Ogunbowale0100
Tank Dell0400

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love24/3322032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs12766.30
Emanuel Wilson5112.20
Jayden Reed100.00
Bo Melton1-1-1.00
Christian Watson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs810940
Dontayvion Wicks36481
Tucker Kraft34331
Josh Jacobs55161
Jayden Reed24100
Christian Watson1290
Bo Melton1180
Ben Sims1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.91