Closing spread
GB -3
Total
48
Model margin
+3.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play+0.081
- 39.1%Success rate44.8%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.030
- 8.3%Explosive rate11.7%
- -2.77CPOE+1.37
- 38.2%Third-down rate37.6%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.84Points / drive2.38
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–1 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 10/21 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 25 | 115 | 4.6 | 2 |
| C.J. Stroud | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 24/33 | 220 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 8 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 3 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.91