Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.069
- 46.3%Success rate43.9%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +5.43CPOE-0.02
- 42.8%Third-down rate38.1%
- 69.8%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 2.11Points / drive1.89
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–1 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/37 | 338 | 6 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Green | 22 | 65 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 9 | 12 | 121 | 3 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 10 | 102 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 2 | 3 | 62 | 1 |
| James Jones | 3 | 7 | 33 | 2 |
| Jermichael Finley | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 20/33 | 232 | 0 | 2 |
| T.J. Yates | 2/5 | 23 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 17 | 29 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| James Casey | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.13