2012 · Week 6

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

42·24

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapTexans
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.069
  • 46.3%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +5.43CPOE-0.02
  • 42.8%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 69.8%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.89
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–1 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7HOU @ GB22–24GB
2020 · W7GB @ HOU35–20GB
2016 · W13HOU @ GB13–21GB
2008 · W14HOU @ GB24–21HOU
2004 · W11GB @ HOU16–13GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:38762Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 11:3449Punt7–0
GBQ1 9:41831Punt7–0
HOUQ1 6:39618Punt7–0
GBQ1 2:46656Touchdown14–0
HOUQ1 0:241149Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 10:13850Touchdown21–7
HOUQ2 6:45754Field goal21–10
GBQ2 2:15740Punt21–10
HOUQ2 0:1223End of half21–10
GBQ3 15:001778Touchdown28–10
HOUQ3 8:1654Punt28–10
GBQ3 5:3739Punt28–10
HOUQ3 4:05965Touchdown28–17
GBQ3 0:17357Touchdown35–17
HOUQ4 14:4620Turnover35–17
GBQ4 14:34427Touchdown42–17
HOUQ4 12:161360Turnover42–17
GBQ4 7:1131Opp touchdown42–24
GBQ4 5:3037Punt42–24
HOUQ4 5:03627Turnover42–24
GBQ4 3:4049Turnover on downs42–24
HOUQ4 1:53324End of half42–24

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3733860

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Green22653.00
Aaron Rodgers2178.50
James Starks5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson9121213
Randall Cobb7101020
Tom Crabtree23621
James Jones37332
Jermichael Finley24120
Alex Green1180

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub20/3323202
T.J. Yates2/52301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett7476.70
Arian Foster17291.72
Ben Tate3144.70
Matt Schaub100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson812750
Owen Daniels35460
Kevin Walter23280
James Casey22270
Garrett Graham35250
Keshawn Martin26240
Justin Forsett11180
Arian Foster13120
DeVier Posey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.13