Closing spread
GB -3
Total
51
Model margin
+1.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.110EPA / play-0.022
- 46.2%Success rate41.4%
- +0.241EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- 46.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.02Points / drive1.44
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–1 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 57 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 8:29 | 8 | 38 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 4:14 | 5 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 2:20 | 9 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q2 13:28 | 7 | 75 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q2 9:21 | 4 | 62 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 7:23 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 4:44 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| GB | Q2 1:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 0:47 | 4 | 31 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| GB | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–13 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–13 |
| GB | Q3 12:40 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| HOU | Q3 9:06 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 3–13 |
| GB | Q3 4:46 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–13 |
| HOU | Q3 2:56 | 6 | 0 | Punt | 3–13 |
| GB | Q4 14:53 | 7 | 86 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| HOU | Q4 12:28 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–13 |
| GB | Q4 11:08 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| HOU | Q4 7:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–13 |
| GB | Q4 5:41 | 8 | 33 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| HOU | Q4 3:06 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–13 |
| GB | Q4 2:00 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 33/50 | 383 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter Williams | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 13/26 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.43