Closing spread
GB -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.127
- 41.9%Success rate45.9%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.243
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.138
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.29CPOE+2.71
- 36.9%Third-down rate47.4%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.45Points / drive2.39
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–1 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 22/35 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Grimes | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 22 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 6 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/30 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| James Starks | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 10 | 118 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.06