2016 · Week 13

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

13·21

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPackers
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.127
  • 41.9%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.243
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.138
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.29CPOE+2.71
  • 36.9%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.45Points / drive2.39
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–1 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7HOU @ GB22–24GB
2020 · W7GB @ HOU35–20GB
2012 · W6GB @ HOU42–24GB
2008 · W14HOU @ GB24–21HOU
2004 · W11GB @ HOU16–13GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–GB
HOUQ1 15:00926Turnover0–0
GBQ1 10:42720Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 8:19412Punt0–0
GBQ1 6:0336Punt0–0
HOUQ1 4:411031Turnover on downs0–0
GBQ2 14:001050Touchdown0–7
HOUQ2 8:02413Punt0–7
GBQ2 5:0635Punt0–7
HOUQ2 4:0330Punt0–7
GBQ2 3:38521Punt0–7
HOUQ2 1:37527End of half0–7
GBQ3 15:0031Punt0–7
HOUQ3 12:291063Touchdown7–7
GBQ3 7:3249Turnover on downs7–7
HOUQ3 6:09617Punt7–7
GBQ3 3:0212108Touchdown7–14
HOUQ4 12:42741Punt7–14
GBQ4 8:52889Touchdown7–21
HOUQ4 4:11788Touchdown13–21
GBQ4 1:5130Punt13–21
HOUQ4 0:041-8End of half13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler22/3520220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Grimes5438.60
Alfred Blue5387.60
Lamar Miller14221.60
Brock Osweiler3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller56590
DeAndre Hopkins38581
C.J. Fiedorowicz69440
Ryan Griffin46351
Jonathan Grimes11150
Alfred Blue2230
Braxton Miller0200
Lamar Miller11-40

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers20/3020920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery6406.70
Christine Michael9192.10
Jeff Janis11919.00
Aaron Rodgers3165.30
James Starks410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson8101181
Jared Cook34190
Randall Cobb33191
Davante Adams17170
Richard Rodgers22160
Ty Montgomery23160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.06