Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.221EPA / play+0.093
- 50.7%Success rate47.8%
- +0.353EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.7%
- +6.90CPOE+6.51
- 50.7%Third-down rate43.5%
- 86.4%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.98Points / drive2.25
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–1 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/34 | 283 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 13 | 16 | 196 | 2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Jace Sternberger | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrius Shepherd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 29/39 | 309 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 8 | 10 | 95 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.62