2020 · Week 7

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

35·20

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapTexans
  • +0.221EPA / play+0.093
  • 50.7%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.353EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.193
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +6.90CPOE+6.51
  • 50.7%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 86.4%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.98Points / drive2.25
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–1 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7HOU @ GB22–24GB
2016 · W13HOU @ GB13–21GB
2012 · W6GB @ HOU42–24GB
2008 · W14HOU @ GB24–21HOU
2004 · W11GB @ HOU16–13GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–HOU
GBQ1 15:001155Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 9:2138Punt7–0
GBQ1 7:1532Punt7–0
HOUQ1 5:48628Punt7–0
GBQ1 3:10988Touchdown14–0
HOUQ2 13:33615Punt14–0
GBQ2 9:36439Punt14–0
HOUQ2 7:121081Missed field goal14–0
GBQ2 2:38969Touchdown21–0
HOUQ2 0:1413End of half21–0
HOUQ3 15:001265Touchdown21–7
GBQ3 8:55875Touchdown28–7
HOUQ3 4:4436Punt28–7
GBQ3 3:5230Punt28–7
HOUQ3 2:48647Field goal28–10
GBQ4 14:1236Punt28–10
HOUQ4 12:08611Field goal28–13
GBQ4 9:5630Punt28–13
HOUQ4 9:32518Turnover on downs28–13
GBQ4 6:58746Touchdown35–13
HOUQ4 3:40975Touchdown35–20
GBQ4 1:3300Turnover35–20
HOUQ4 1:3018Turnover35–20
GBQ4 1:2200End of half35–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3428340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams19774.11
AJ Dillon5112.20
Marquez Valdes-Scantling199.00
Tim Boyle2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams13161962
Jamaal Williams45370
Robert Tonyan22320
Marcedes Lewis1390
Malik Taylor2261
Jace Sternberger1131
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0400
Darrius Shepherd0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson29/3930920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson14423.00
Deshaun Watson7385.40
Duke Johnson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb810950
Brandin Cooks79600
Duke Johnson55430
David Johnson44421
Will Fuller36351
Kenny Stills24340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.1%

Expected total

48.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.62