2008 · Week 15
Final
Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
WAS -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.172
- 42.3%Success rate38.0%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.5%Explosive rate5.1%
- -1.49CPOE-3.29
- 36.0%Third-down rate35.3%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.37Points / drive0.93
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. CIN are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 17/28 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 77 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/29 | 209 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64