2024 · Week 3
Final
Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play+0.107
- 48.1%Success rate48.0%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.193
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +4.57CPOE+6.81
- 45.9%Third-down rate47.3%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 2.78Points / drive2.50
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. CIN are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 21/23 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 16 | 33 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 6 | 100 | 1 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 29/38 | 324 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 7 | 118 | 2 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 5 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Erick All | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34