2020 · Week 11

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

9·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -2

Total

48

Model margin

+5.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.051
  • 44.2%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback-0.063
  • -0.122EPA / rush-0.030
  • 6.5%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +0.03CPOE-1.32
  • 37.1%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.76
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. WAS are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3WAS @ CIN38–33WAS
2016 · W8WAS @ CIN27–27Tie
2012 · W3CIN @ WAS38–31CIN
2008 · W15WAS @ CIN13–20CIN
2004 · W10CIN @ WAS17–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–WAS
WASQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:401375Missed field goal0–0
WASQ1 5:44876Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 1:381169Turnover0–7
WASQ2 11:5933Punt0–7
CINQ2 11:01853Touchdown6–7
WASQ2 7:3239Punt6–7
CINQ2 5:28941Field goal9–7
WASQ2 1:39524Turnover9–7
CINQ2 0:1839Missed field goal9–7
CINQ3 15:0030Punt9–7
WASQ3 14:0638Punt9–7
CINQ3 12:2238Punt9–7
WASQ3 11:25555Touchdown9–14
CINQ3 8:5830Punt9–14
WASQ3 7:03628Field goal9–17
CINQ3 4:47613Punt9–17
WASQ3 2:081379Field goal9–20
CINQ4 9:443-5Punt9–20
WASQ4 7:35523Punt9–20
CINQ4 5:1859Turnover on downs9–20
WASQ4 3:563-1Missed field goal9–20
CINQ4 1:5710Turnover9–20
WASQ4 1:50111End of half9–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow22/3420310
Ryan Finley3/103001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine5193.80
Ryan Finley11919.00
Giovani Bernard9182.00
Joe Burrow2126.00
Alex Erickson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd911850
A.J. Green49411
Giovani Bernard45370
Drew Sample24290
Tee Higgins310260
Alex Erickson1180
Auden Tate1250
Samaje Perine1220

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith17/2516611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson16945.91
J.D. McKissic6437.20
Peyton Barber8283.50
Logan Thomas122.00
Alex Smith3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin57840
J.D. McKissic34260
Cam Sims22200
Steven Sims33131
Antonio Gibson12100
Isaiah Wright1170
Logan Thomas2560

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.57