2020 · Week 11
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -2
Total
48
Model margin
+5.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.051
- 44.2%Success rate42.1%
- +0.005EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.122EPA / rush-0.030
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +0.03CPOE-1.32
- 37.1%Third-down rate40.2%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.76
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. WAS are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 22/34 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Finley | 3/10 | 30 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Finley | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 9 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/25 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 16 | 94 | 5.9 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.57