2012 · Week 3

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

38·31

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.002EPA / play+0.137
  • 41.6%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback+0.233
  • -0.034EPA / rush+0.030
  • 6.6%Explosive rate12.8%
  • +1.17CPOE+4.84
  • 34.3%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.71Points / drive2.11
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. WAS are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3WAS @ CIN38–33WAS
2020 · W11CIN @ WAS9–20WAS
2016 · W8WAS @ CIN27–27Tie
2008 · W15WAS @ CIN13–20CIN
2004 · W10CIN @ WAS17–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–WAS
CINQ1 15:00173Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 14:43524Punt7–0
CINQ1 11:4521Opp touchdown7–7
CINQ1 11:00832Punt7–7
WASQ1 7:1233Punt7–7
CINQ1 5:40668Touchdown14–7
WASQ1 3:28416Punt14–7
CINQ1 1:041568Turnover on downs14–7
WASQ2 9:2943Punt14–7
CINQ2 7:51630Field goal17–7
WASQ2 4:362-8Turnover17–7
CINQ2 3:49212Touchdown24–7
WASQ2 3:13730Field goal24–10
CINQ2 0:3100End of half24–10
WASQ3 15:00965Touchdown24–17
CINQ3 10:2339Punt24–17
WASQ3 8:571081Touchdown24–24
CINQ3 3:29227Turnover24–24
WASQ3 2:533-8Punt24–24
CINQ3 1:4136Punt24–24
WASQ3 0:0439Punt24–24
CINQ4 13:27573Touchdown31–24
WASQ4 11:24517Punt31–24
CINQ4 9:09472Touchdown38–24
WASQ4 7:0813100Touchdown38–31
CINQ4 3:3538Punt38–31
CINQ4 1:5700Punt38–31
CINQ4 1:5700Punt38–31
WASQ4 1:47445End of half38–31
WASQ4 0:3624End of half38–31
WASQ4 0:0700End of half38–31
WASQ4 0:0710End of half38–31
WASQ4 0:0000End of half38–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton19/2732831
Mohamed Sanu1/17310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis17382.21
Brian Leonard2189.00
Andrew Hawkins2168.00
Andy Dalton2168.00
A.J. Green11111.00
Bernard Scott3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green9111831
Andrew Hawkins24661
Jermaine Gresham57641
Armon Binns33631
Orson Charles11250
Brian Leonard0100
BenJarvus Green-Ellis0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III21/3422110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris17784.61
Robert Griffin III13745.71
Brandon Banks3299.70
Evan Royster22110.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis77900
Leonard Hankerson47560
Josh Morgan23220
Roy Helu33200
Evan Royster24130
Aldrick Robinson13120
Brandon Banks1150
Santana Moss1331
Logan Paulsen0100
Alfred Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.97