2012 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play+0.137
- 41.6%Success rate46.7%
- +0.019EPA / dropback+0.233
- -0.034EPA / rush+0.030
- 6.6%Explosive rate12.8%
- +1.17CPOE+4.84
- 34.3%Third-down rate35.5%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.71Points / drive2.11
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. WAS are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 19/27 | 328 | 3 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1/1 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 17 | 38 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 9 | 11 | 183 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Armon Binns | 3 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 21/34 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 13 | 74 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Brandon Banks | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 7 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.97