2016 · Week 8
Final / OT
Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
49
Model margin
+1.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.052
- 48.2%Success rate45.3%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.050
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.99CPOE+2.98
- 44.9%Third-down rate38.9%
- 51.2%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.32Points / drive1.86
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. CIN are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 38/56 | 458 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Kelley | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 9 | 13 | 107 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 9 | 13 | 99 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 27/42 | 284 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 9 | 18 | 121 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 9 | 12 | 102 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.95