2016 · Week 8

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

27·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

49

Model margin

+1.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBengals
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.052
  • 48.2%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.202EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.050
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.99CPOE+2.98
  • 44.9%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.86
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. CIN are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3WAS @ CIN38–33WAS
2020 · W11CIN @ WAS9–20WAS
2012 · W3CIN @ WAS38–31CIN
2008 · W15WAS @ CIN13–20CIN
2004 · W10CIN @ WAS17–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CIN
WASQ1 15:001580Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 7:38736Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 3:51953Turnover on downs7–7
CINQ2 13:1032Punt7–7
WASQ2 12:20877Field goal10–7
CINQ2 8:16832Missed field goal10–7
WASQ2 3:253-4Turnover10–7
CINQ2 2:24512Punt10–7
WASQ2 1:21620Missed field goal10–7
CINQ3 15:001175Touchdown10–13
WASQ3 10:423-1Punt10–13
CINQ3 9:131060Touchdown10–20
WASQ3 5:15246Touchdown10–20
WASQ3 4:2227Touchdown16–20
WASQ3 3:12123Touchdown17–20
CINQ3 3:021033Turnover17–20
WASQ4 13:48788Touchdown24–20
CINQ4 9:30774Touchdown24–27
WASQ4 6:5432Punt24–27
CINQ4 5:44614Punt24–27
WASQ4 3:15945Field goal27–27
CINQ4 1:0769Punt27–27
WASQ4 0:0300End of half27–27
WASOT635Punt27–27
CINOT1045Punt27–27
WASOT1167Missed field goal27–27
CINOT523Turnover27–27
WASOT59Turnover on downs27–27

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins38/5645821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rob Kelley21874.11
Chris Thompson7142.00
Kirk Cousins3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder9131071
Jordan Reed913991
Vernon Davis55930
Pierre Garcon67670
DeSean Jackson37480
Chris Thompson55270
Ryan Grant12170
Maurice Harris0200
Rob Kelley0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton27/4228411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill20763.81
Giovani Bernard11524.71
Andy Dalton4215.31
Tyler Boyd133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green9181210
Tyler Eifert9121021
Tyler Boyd57380
Giovani Bernard11140
Brandon LaFell1260
Tyler Kroft1160
Jeremy Hill11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.95