2004 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -4
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.121
- 43.2%Success rate38.9%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- 40.8%Third-down rate31.9%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.40Points / drive1.03
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. WAS are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 14:48 | 6 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:53 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 10:58 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:04 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 5:37 | 6 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 3:12 | 13 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| WAS | Q2 12:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| CIN | Q2 10:53 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q2 7:28 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–0 |
| CIN | Q2 5:49 | 11 | 55 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q2 1:05 | 5 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 17–0 |
| CIN | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 17–0 |
| CIN | Q3 14:23 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q3 13:05 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 17–0 |
| CIN | Q3 11:11 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q3 9:54 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| CIN | Q3 9:04 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q3 5:56 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 17–0 |
| CIN | Q3 3:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q3 1:32 | 9 | 40 | Missed field goal | 17–0 |
| CIN | Q4 12:35 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q4 10:45 | 12 | 60 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q4 5:46 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 17–3 |
| WAS | Q4 4:32 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q4 2:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–10 |
| WAS | Q4 1:01 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/39 | 217 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 31 | 102 | 3.3 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 18/37 | 210 | 1 | 2 |
| Mark Brunell | 1/8 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.93