2004 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -4
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.121
- 43.2%Success rate38.9%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- 40.8%Third-down rate31.9%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.40Points / drive1.03
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. WAS are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/39 | 217 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 31 | 102 | 3.3 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 18/37 | 210 | 1 | 2 |
| Mark Brunell | 1/8 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.93