2008 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/35 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.