2008 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:51 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:00 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 5:04 | 4 | 11 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 2:39 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| TB | Q2 13:26 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:45 | 11 | 80 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| TB | Q2 5:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:50 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–7 |
| TB | Q2 1:56 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 25 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 78 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| LAC | Q3 7:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–17 |
| TB | Q3 6:20 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| LAC | Q3 5:05 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| TB | Q4 14:53 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 27–24 |
| LAC | Q4 13:41 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 27–24 |
| TB | Q4 12:02 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 27–24 |
| LAC | Q4 9:24 | 4 | 46 | Touchdown | 34–24 |
| TB | Q4 7:18 | 10 | 29 | Opp touchdown | 41–24 |
| TB | Q4 3:00 | 5 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 41–24 |
| LAC | Q4 1:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/35 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.