2024 · Week 15

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

40·17

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

46

Model margin

-0.2est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapChargers
  • +0.133EPA / play+0.044
  • 49.4%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.127
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.079
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +3.56CPOE+1.69
  • 50.8%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.71Points / drive2.25
  • 2.0%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 4–2 since 1999

TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. LAC are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W4LAC @ TB31–38TB
2016 · W13TB @ SD28–21TB
2012 · W10SD @ TB24–34TB
2008 · W16SD @ TB41–24CHARGERS
2004 · W14TB @ SD24–31CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–LAC
TBQ1 15:00770Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 11:141155Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 6:181372Field goal10–7
LACQ2 13:41856Field goal10–10
TBQ2 8:4710Turnover10–10
LACQ2 8:39327Touchdown10–17
TBQ2 7:12310Turnover10–17
LACQ2 5:3644Punt10–17
TBQ2 3:371156Field goal13–17
LACQ2 0:3320End of half13–17
LACQ3 15:0036Punt13–17
TBQ3 13:17583Touchdown20–17
LACQ3 10:23514Punt20–17
TBQ3 7:53461Field goal23–17
LACQ3 5:0620Turnover23–17
TBQ3 4:34747Touchdown30–17
LACQ3 1:36833Turnover on downs30–17
TBQ4 13:38966Touchdown37–17
LACQ4 7:3757Turnover on downs37–17
TBQ4 6:11830Field goal40–17
LACQ4 2:5114Turnover40–17
TBQ4 2:37411End of half40–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/2728841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving151177.80
Rachaad White15644.30
Baker Mayfield22512.50
Sean Tucker7172.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans9111592
Jalen McMillan56751
Cade Otton23240
Rachaad White22171
Sterling Shepard11160
Ryan Miller1110
Bucky Irving22-40

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert21/3319521
Taylor Heinicke1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards8232.90
Kimani Vidal393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey57581
Stone Smartt56500
Quentin Johnston510451
DJ Chark22160
Kimani Vidal23130
Josh Palmer23100
Tucker Fisk1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.21