2024 · Week 15
Final
SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
46
Model margin
-0.2est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play+0.044
- 49.4%Success rate42.3%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.127
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.079
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.56CPOE+1.69
- 50.8%Third-down rate40.1%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.71Points / drive2.25
- 2.0%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. LAC are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/27 | 288 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 15 | 117 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 9 | 11 | 159 | 2 |
| Jalen McMillan | 5 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/33 | 195 | 2 | 1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Stone Smartt | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 10 | 45 | 1 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.21