2012 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 14/20 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 2 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Chris Owusu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.