2016 · Week 13
Final
Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. SD are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 20/30 | 280 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 6 | 9 | 86 | 1 |
| Freddie Martino | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.