2020 · Week 4

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

31·38

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -7.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.149
  • 43.8%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.032
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.07CPOE+3.10
  • 45.1%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.68
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 4–2 since 1999

TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15TB @ LAC40–17TB
2016 · W13TB @ SD28–21TB
2012 · W10SD @ TB24–34TB
2008 · W16SD @ TB41–24CHARGERS
2004 · W14TB @ SD24–31CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–TB
TBQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 10:00475Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 8:14835Opp touchdown14–7
TBQ1 3:5546Punt14–7
LACQ1 1:5432Punt14–7
TBQ1 1:0030Punt14–7
LACQ1 0:051465Touchdown21–7
TBQ2 8:50845Missed field goal21–7
LACQ2 4:54841Field goal24–7
TBQ2 1:37610Punt24–7
LACQ2 0:471-1Turnover24–7
TBQ2 0:3836Touchdown24–14
LACQ2 0:2200End of half24–14
LACQ3 15:0000Punt24–14
LACQ3 15:003-5Punt24–14
TBQ3 12:50869Touchdown24–21
LACQ3 8:221161Missed field goal24–21
TBQ3 1:40263Touchdown24–28
LACQ3 0:52375Touchdown31–28
TBQ4 15:00890Touchdown31–35
LACQ4 11:0539Punt31–35
TBQ4 8:451172Field goal31–38
LACQ4 2:4023Turnover31–38
TBQ4 2:22216End of half31–38

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert20/2529031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert5142.80
Austin Ekeler2126.00
Justin Jackson691.50
Joshua Kelley970.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Guyton11721
Keenan Allen811620
Tyron Johnson11531
Hunter Henry24390
Joshua Kelley33260
Donald Parham11191
Justin Jackson22120
Austin Ekeler1120

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/4636951

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones201115.50
Ke'Shawn Vaughn341.30
LeSean McCoy133.00
Tom Brady3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans781221
Scott Miller57831
O.J. Howard36501
Justin Watson46400
Rob Gronkowski13290
Ke'Shawn Vaughn23221
Ronald Jones69170
LeSean McCoy1130
Cameron Brate1131
Kenjon Barner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.23