2020 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.149
- 43.8%Success rate46.9%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.032
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.07CPOE+3.10
- 45.1%Third-down rate44.2%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 2.02Points / drive2.68
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 20/25 | 290 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 1 | 72 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 53 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/46 | 369 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 20 | 111 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 8 | 122 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 3 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 6 | 9 | 17 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.23