2004 · Week 14
Final
Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SD -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. SD are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 36/50 | 392 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.