2004 · Week 14
Final
Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SD -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. SD are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:12 | 7 | 34 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 5:01 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 1:20 | 5 | 15 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 13:27 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q2 12:01 | 1 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 11:49 | 5 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 8:51 | 10 | 59 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:39 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 0:49 | 5 | 25 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q3 13:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| TB | Q3 11:04 | 14 | 93 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 4:56 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| TB | Q3 0:30 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 14:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–21 |
| TB | Q4 13:04 | 6 | 47 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 8:50 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| TB | Q4 7:42 | 3 | 22 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LAC | Q4 6:53 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 21–21 |
| TB | Q4 4:28 | 3 | 11 | Opp touchdown | 21–28 |
| TB | Q4 4:09 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 21–28 |
| LAC | Q4 3:10 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 21–31 |
| TB | Q4 2:06 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 24–31 |
| LAC | Q4 0:16 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 36/50 | 392 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.