2010 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Steelers produced the widest margin at 32 points; the tightest finish was Cowboys at Eagles, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Vikings start Joe Webb rather than Brett Favre, which the model treats as worth about 5.1 points against them.
Jets start Mark Brunell rather than Mark Sanchez, an unfamiliar starter the model prices conservatively.
Bills start Brian Brohm rather than Ryan Fitzpatrick, which the model treats as worth about 31.2 points against them.
Broncos start Tim Tebow rather than Kyle Orton, which the model treats as worth about 2.3 points for them.
Patriots lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.191, 0.084 clear of second.
Steelers have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.122 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Bills at Jets, where it rates Jets about 7.4 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
