Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.071
- 39.0%Success rate41.7%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- +0.87CPOE-1.81
- 33.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.43Points / drive1.34
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–1 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. MIA are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/25 | 156 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 25 | 97 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 11 | 10 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 17/29 | 187 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.24