2010 · Week 11

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

16·0

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tyler Thigpen

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+1.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.071
  • 39.0%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +0.87CPOE-1.81
  • 33.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.34
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–1 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. MIA are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9MIA @ CHI35–32MIA
2018 · W6CHI @ MIA28–31MIA
2014 · W7MIA @ CHI27–14MIA
2006 · W9MIA @ CHI31–13MIA
2002 · W14CHI @ MIA9–27MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00511Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:3332Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:08411Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:15737Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 3:48413Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 2:171350Field goal6–0
MIAQ2 10:27641Punt6–0
CHIQ2 7:291158Turnover6–0
MIAQ2 1:46417Punt6–0
CHIQ2 0:4629End of half6–0
CHIQ3 15:00638Field goal9–0
MIAQ3 11:4748Punt9–0
CHIQ3 9:231455Touchdown16–0
MIAQ3 1:57616Punt16–0
CHIQ4 14:30619Punt16–0
MIAQ4 10:2430Punt16–0
CHIQ4 8:5831Punt16–0
MIAQ4 7:14616Turnover on downs16–0
CHIQ4 3:5961Punt16–0
MIAQ4 1:48754End of half16–0

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler16/2515601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte25973.91
Jay Cutler4287.00
Chester Taylor11100.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox58550
Devin Hester45410
Greg Olsen46400
Earl Bennett13130
Matt Forte2270
Kellen Davis0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Thigpen17/2918701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Thigpen6274.50
Ronnie Brown3103.30
Ricky Williams310.30
Patrick Cobbs111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline56700
Brandon Marshall36410
Marlon Moore23200
Ronnie Brown33190
Anthony Fasano11160
Ricky Williams12120
Davone Bess1590
Patrick Cobbs1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.24