2002 · Week 14

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

9·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

MIA -10.5

Total

37

Model margin

+5.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.017
  • 40.0%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.197EPA / rush-0.028
  • 7.5%Explosive rate11.0%
  • 33.7%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.85
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–1 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. MIA are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9MIA @ CHI35–32MIA
2018 · W6CHI @ MIA28–31MIA
2014 · W7MIA @ CHI27–14MIA
2010 · W11CHI @ MIA16–0CHI
2006 · W9MIA @ CHI31–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIA
CHIQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:52660Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 9:3810Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 9:31438Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 7:30620Punt0–7
MIAQ1 4:123-1Punt0–7
CHIQ1 2:1633Punt0–7
MIAQ1 0:56855Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 13:2134Punt0–7
MIAQ2 12:14618Punt0–7
CHIQ2 9:1341Punt0–7
MIAQ2 7:26784Touchdown0–14
CHIQ2 4:12611Punt0–14
MIAQ2 1:45739End of half0–14
MIAQ3 15:00637Turnover0–14
CHIQ3 11:0932Field goal3–14
MIAQ3 10:15265Touchdown3–21
CHIQ3 9:1633Punt3–21
MIAQ3 7:36511Punt3–21
CHIQ3 4:371369Turnover on downs3–21
MIAQ4 14:0035Punt3–21
CHIQ4 12:16512Turnover on downs3–21
MIAQ4 11:0938Punt3–21
CHIQ4 9:2120Turnover3–21
MIAQ4 9:0535Field goal3–24
CHIQ4 7:261-6Turnover3–24
MIAQ4 7:1237Field goal3–27
CHIQ4 5:41320Turnover3–27
MIAQ4 4:5177Turnover on downs3–27
CHIQ4 2:10658Touchdown9–27
MIAQ4 0:4400End of half9–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler7/178602
Jim Miller3/12901
Henry Burris1/3610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Henry Burris55210.40
Leon Johnson15442.90
Adrian Peterson3113.70
Jim Miller100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker511461
John Gilmore25240
Ahmad Merritt13110
Leon Johnson1290
Adrian Peterson1170
Dez White1340
Stanley Pritchett0100
Marcus Robinson0300

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler15/2919611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams312167.02
Travis Minor8212.60
Jay Fiedler11010.00
James McKnight11010.00
Sage Rosenfels2-9-4.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight45900
Chris Chambers26340
Randy McMichael12260
Cris Carter1280
Dedric Ward1260
Jed Weaver1351
Ricky Williams0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.44