Closing spread
MIA -10.5
Total
37
Model margin
+5.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.017
- 40.0%Success rate45.0%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.197EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.5%Explosive rate11.0%
- 33.7%Third-down rate37.0%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.35Points / drive1.85
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–1 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. MIA are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 7/17 | 86 | 0 | 2 |
| Jim Miller | 3/12 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| Henry Burris | 1/3 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Burris | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 5 | 11 | 46 | 1 |
| John Gilmore | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 15/29 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 31 | 216 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Travis Minor | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 4 | 5 | 90 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.44