2006 · Week 9

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Joey Harrington

31·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Rex Grossman

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -13

Total

37

Model margin

+3.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBears
  • -0.103EPA / play-0.046
  • 41.6%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.039
  • -0.139EPA / rush-0.054
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.62CPOE-3.50
  • 37.7%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.80
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–1 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. CHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9MIA @ CHI35–32MIA
2018 · W6CHI @ MIA28–31MIA
2014 · W7MIA @ CHI27–14MIA
2010 · W11CHI @ MIA16–0CHI
2002 · W14CHI @ MIA9–27MIA

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington16/3213732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown291575.40
Sammy Morris133.00
Joey Harrington420.50
Marty Booker1-1-1.00

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman18/4221013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones20693.50
Cedric Benson8344.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.39