Closing spread
CHI -13
Total
37
Model margin
+3.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.046
- 41.6%Success rate40.3%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.62CPOE-3.50
- 37.7%Third-down rate37.7%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.19Points / drive1.80
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–1 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. CHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:46 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:53 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 6:45 | 16 | 54 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 0:04 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 12:12 | 3 | 6 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q2 10:47 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–3 |
| CHI | Q2 10:32 | 7 | 26 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| MIA | Q2 7:14 | 5 | 34 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| CHI | Q2 4:58 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| MIA | Q2 1:57 | 7 | 45 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 17 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| MIA | Q3 14:40 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| CHI | Q3 13:13 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q3 12:10 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 21–10 |
| CHI | Q3 10:06 | 9 | 37 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q3 5:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–10 |
| CHI | Q3 5:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q3 3:26 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| CHI | Q3 1:56 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| MIA | Q3 1:02 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 21–13 |
| CHI | Q4 11:54 | 6 | 3 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| MIA | Q4 10:08 | 1 | 24 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| CHI | Q4 10:00 | 10 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 28–13 |
| MIA | Q4 5:53 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 31–13 |
| CHI | Q4 1:09 | 7 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 31–13 |
| MIA | Q4 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 16/32 | 137 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 29 | 157 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 18/42 | 210 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.39